Saturday, January 5, 2019

It's Not About the Wall

The current standoff between the President and Democratic Congressional leaders is more about
establishing the power Democrats hold in a divided government than in building a wall.  
It is a battle Democrats cannot afford to lose. If they blink now, the President will use similar
‘my way or the highway’ ploys to bend them to his will for the next two years.


Democrats have carefully chosen their battle.  They hold the high ground in this debate.
Most Americans are against building the wall and the facts support their position. Illegal migration is
down some 80 percent from peak levels,  and the number of illegals residing in the United States
continues to decline, albeit slightly. Today’s border issue deals with the large numbers of families
seeking asylum, groups that present themselves to U.S. authorities at points of legal entry.  This issue
is best addressed by expanding US immigration courts to eliminate the backlog and/or passing
legislation that limits access to these courts: more walls would not make a difference.


Secondly, they can avert charges of partisanship by responding to bipartisan legislation passed under
the leadership of the Republican-led Senate in December.  All the Democratic House has done is split
this legislation into two parts, one to fund Homeland Security and the second to fund the rest of
government for the balance of the fiscal year.  All they are asking the President to do is sign the
legislation he had Mitch McConnell pass in December.


One should not underestimate the resistance of the Democratic leadership to expanding the wall.    
Nancy Pelosi, in particular, has staked out a position that makes compromise exceedingly difficult.  
She has stated emphatically that the wall ‘is immoral’ and that she views DACA legislation as an entirely
separate issue.  Unless she walks this back, any Republican overture to link the two is a non-starter,
a far cry from earlier this year when Senate Minority Leader Schumer offered $25 billion for the wall
in return for DACA legislation.


The President is equally committed to winning this battle.  The wall was his signature promise, yet
nothing has been accomplished in this regard.  He is further held hostage by ongoing clarion calls to
his base for a wall to protect a nation which he proclaims as increasingly threatened by illegal
immigration.  To this end, he posted several thousand US troops at the border as a stop gap measure.
Critically, the President has no sense of the Constitutional limitations placed on his power by a
Democratic-led House.   Frustrated by Democratic intransigence to his demands, he has raised
the specter of using emergency powers to get the wall built.


How, then does this end?  Holding the high ground, Democrats seem content to let
Republicans sort it out: the bills are back in the Senate awaiting a vote, and Mitch McConnell has
to decide whether or not to break ranks with the President.  Pressure to open government will
continue to mount, but Trump never,never accepts defeat. It will take some time before he does so
and it will be a bitter pill for him to swallow. He will not get his wall and will have to live with the
consequences of a divided government.  Elections do have consequences.